Denver Metro Housing Reports

Let's start with strong demographics. 33% of home buyers today and for the next decade are first time home buyers with nothing to sell, taking from an already stressed market with nothing to give in return. At the other end of the spectrum baby boomers are delaying their downsizing, moving into assisted living nursing homes, or in with family due to their heightened pandemic risk, holding onto those homes younger families need. For new builders NAHB noted lumber continues to spike up with futures up another 35% on top of the already high 170% rise we saw over the last 10 months.

There are things I know, things I wonder about, and things that boggle my mind.  Here are a few… I knew demand was about to explode before 2020 began. Demographics told us that.  8.8 to 9.2 million first-time home buyers were coming and they wanted a piece of the American Dream. With the largest age cohort numbering over 23 million, Americans aged 25 to 29 are looking to start families and buy homes.  And once someone has a child they are twice as likely to purchase a home.  I knew that a recession was coming, or at least I was pretty certain. America was on a Recession Watch at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020 tracking slowing manufacturing, shipping, business spending, and job creation as well as declining consumer confidence, talks of trade wars, and political unrest. The two and ten-year yields had also inverted pointing to a longer-term financial instability.

DMAR’s December Market Trends Report was released this morning and provided numbers supporting what we already knew. Demand is strong! Inventory hit an all-time low of 3415 active listings at month-end. Compare this to the average active listings for November month-end of over 14,000 and a happier place of 6,000 units.  Sellers are exceeding the typical seasonal holiday slowdown of decreased supply. The added fears of job security, prospective buyers entering their homes, and finding a replacement home are adding to their resistance to sell. Potential Sellers are also starting to face what will become more widespread, something called rate lock where the appeal of staying in their current home with a lower rate and monthly payment will outweigh their desire to move. We will continue to see tenure increase from its current average of 10 years as well as homeowners holding onto their primary homes with low-interest rates and choose to convert them into rental properties.

November’s DMAR report highlighting October data reflects just how important the home has become by producing nearly as many records as we saw in last month’s report. Now is not the time to sit on the sidelines in fear that the bubble will burst; it is the time to stay engaged. Finding the right home might be challenging, but waiting will only cost you more.

It’s become infinitely more important as it’s our refuge, our workplace, classroom, meeting room, restaurant, escape and for some, our isolation. The Denver Metro Association of REALTORS® (DMAR) October Market Trends Report highlights how this resurgence in our home has played out in the stats.  We have the lowest amount of homes for sale for any September at 5,301 homes, which consequently is only a mere 950 homes more than Denver-area’s all-time inventory low Buyers put your sneakers on because homes are selling in six days, the fastest for any September on record Be ready to pay more. Denver’s median closed price hit a record high at $461,000. Consequently, that’s more than the sellers were asking, as the close-to-list price for September was 100.41% Even with this low inventory, we sold 5,850 homes, more than any September on record With another record 6,376 pending sales teed up for October Sellers, I see you are trying. 6,376 new listings came on the market; but with demographics and interest rates favoring buyers, it simply isn’t enough

Real estate has not only taken a position of favor because it’s now where we are spending most of our time, but it’s also giving homeowners stability in a shifting market.  What keeps me up at night?  The stock market.  As CNN’s Fear & Greed Index moves further into Greed and Citigroup’s Panic/Euphoria Index points towards extreme Euphoria; both point to lower stock prices within a year.  The recent news of COVID deaths breaking 155,000; COVID cases doubling in July; jobless numbers and continuing claims both breaking trend and increasing; and Yelp’s business tracker showing another 15,742 businesses closed permanently in July alone all point to a long recovery. Real estate, however, continues to show strength with a sneak peek into next month as pending home sales in July another big number of 7,122, 27.47 percent higher than last year. 

Get me off this COVID-19 rollercoaster! Cases are resurging closing businesses that just opened while risking the recent good news of job creations and lower unemployment we saw from economic reopenings in May and June. The Fed is poised to act to keep rates low and urged lawmakers to accelerate the fourth stimulus package before programs end July 31st. Locally, Denver's housing market remains strong with growing pending home sales, almost full recovery of closed homes compared to 2019, and appreciating values due to scarce inventory. 

2020 has been a year of historical proportions (what else could possibly happen?) and it’s changed the real estate market. Buyers and sellers alike are no longer only asking, “Do we love this home,” but are now asking questions like, “Is it big enough to work from home?” “Does it provide opportunity and space for my children to play if schooling at home?” And, ultimately, “Is it safe?”

We see red numbers on this month’s Market Trends Report and this is no surprise, but there are a few silver linings buried in there as well.  Let’s start at the top and what’s going on in the economic market, the consumer confidence, and then how it intersects Denver’s real estate market. COVID-19 has impacted us all, some more deeply than others. The loss of jobs and the requirement to stay at home forced many transactions and businesses to a screeching halt.  Join us for this episode covering Unemployment, GDP and Consumer Confidence Rates, In Person Showings, Appreciation, Demand is Strong, Time to Navigate. These insights will help you respond to the current market and prepare for what's coming up.

DMAR’s April Market Trends Report highlights the strength of the overall housing and economic market going into what will be known as one of the most surreal experiences you and I have – and, likely, will ever have - in our lifetimes. Let me first acknowledge the human tragedy of COVID-19. To those who lost loved ones, jobs, financial stability, and so much more; I hope you find the strength to help us all move past this dark chapter in history. As optimistic I am about the future long-term future of our economy, the significant downturn and its effects will be felt throughout every industry throughout the short-term. The effects will be felt for the long-term in some industries, but I stand convinced the economy will race to normalcy once COVID-19 withdraws and we fully reopen the economy from social isolation.