Agent Education

The Denver Real Estate Market is still up in price growth. In September, we saw a year-to-date price growth of 12.8%. I get this isn't the 21% increase Y.O.Y we saw in March, but IT IS STILL UP. We have to recognize that a real estate market slowdown does not mean a loss in value, it just means a shift in perspective. In this episode we take a look at the Denver Real Estate Market price growth and what it means for buyers and sellers.

So while we were sleeping, we were seeing the European bonds were selling off, which we opened up Monday morning to this bond selloff here in the United States, dropping the bond prices and raising our interest rates.
Powell was just in Switzerland trying to speak to the Switzerland bank and convince them that he's got everything under control. I'm gonna debate that right now. I think they were a little late to the party.
It's starting to become habitual that he's not really forecasting what's happening because he's looking at metrics that are passed. He's primarily looking at unemployment, which isn't a leading indicator. It's a lagging indicator. He's looking at inflation, which is also looking backward.
If you also look at the CPI numbers, the inflation numbers that we're comparing year-over-year inflation to, we're going to start seeing inflation slow down again second quarter next year. And that's because of comparison inflation rates right now we're very low last year, so we're replacing them with high numbers. We're replacing really low numbers and that's keeping inflation high. As those numbers increased last year, that comparison rate is now becoming more in line. We'll start to see that happening in October.
So if rates are at seven or above seven depending on, we are seeing a little bit of the bond market revert back from its extreme yesterday. It's like, oh wait a minute, that was the European market that set our markets on fire. It wasn't even anything in the United States. It was a sell-off of bonds in Europe that caused our bond market sell-off the next morning Monday morning. So Powell goes through all of these conversations to say during the last Fed meeting, "I'm going to define what I want to see in a housing correction." A housing correction includes two things from his perspective, those two things are increased housing supply and decreased housing demand. Come on, that was a given.
Listen to this complete episode, "How Does the Global Market Movement Influence the US Real Estate Market."

What is happening with interest rates? Realtors' businesses are picking up steam, even though we know rates are ticking up. The 10-yr Treasury just hit a high since 2011 (3.51%), and Sweden just raised their bank rate by 100BPS last night! As the FED gears up to meet again and controlling inflation remains top of mind, they've got a .75-1% FED rate increase on the table. We know the recession is coming, and the FED is trying to fast-track it so that consumers will finally stop spending!
But if realtors are seeing a pick-up and are anticipating a solid October, WHY? 
Employers calling employees back to work
Employees finding another job (getting an average 10% raise)
First-time home buyers seeing the opportunity
Investors
The text number is 855-930-0377. Text UPDATE to be added to the list 
Some of what you'll learn in this 18-minute episode includes:
"If I purchase a median home last month in August, the median DMAR 11-county area home price was $579,900.
I buy a $579,900 home with 5% down, I'm putting down $28,995.
If I get a 6% interest rate and I get a 3.8% appreciation because that's what Core Logic is expecting that we're going to see for the next year forward, 3.8%, not the crazy double digits that we've seen.
Historically before the pandemic, the United States appreciated 3.6%. So we're returning back to normal.
So if I have a 3.8% appreciation in five years, I have a gain.
If that stays consistent with principal reduction every single year, knocking down my loan amount and a little bit an increase in value of 3.8% because I only put a limited number amount down and the power of leverage. I have the opportunity of that entire home value going up at the purchase price, not my down payment.
That's going to give me a net worth of $161,000.
I can't make that in the stock market in the next five years, unless your chooser is spot on because mine's broken. I can't make $161,000 in the next five years. And even if we see a dip and a slowdown, which again, because we have so limited supply, but even if the whole secret is don't sell, don't sell. Hold on through the dip and for the next five years. And that's where you're going to regain this opportunity.
In fact, year one with a 3.8% appreciation and the principal reduction based on a 6% interest rate, I actually make a 102% on my down payment.
I put down $28,995. I'm going to net out in equity gain $29,588.
That's just math, right? That's not a motion. That's just math."
 

We just experienced a HOT real estate market that left homebuyers who couldn't afford to pay $50,000 - $100,000 over the asking price with little chance of getting into a home.
While home prices and interest rates seemed to skyrocket, home affordability was challenged, pushing many prospective buyers out of the market. But does that still hold true today? Is home affordability gone? Can you save money and try to purchase a home?
Nicole Rueth, SVPThe Rueth Team Powered by OneTrust Home Loans750 W Hampden Avenue, Suite 500 Englewood, CO 80110303-214-6393www.TheRuethTeam.comConnect on social media: Follow me on FB: https://www.facebook.com/theruethteam/Twitter: https://twitter.com/nicoleruethLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theruethteam YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPMdb94tUNMMsUTgdWRMDKwNicole Rueth (NMLS 239840) is licensed to practice on behalf of OneTrust Home Loans (NMLS 46375) in the states listed below. For full compliance verbiage, visit theruethteam.com/compliance/.AZ, CA, CO, FL, ID, IL, IN, KS, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WY.
 

We are still seeing a lot of market volatility and with the FED meeting this week, everyone is praying that they will just control inflation! But, interest rates DROPPED. There is a window of opportunity to take advantage of as a homebuyer, and we have a program that can help you lock in at these lower rates!
While you're at it, look at gas prices and go fill up, TODAY!
 
Nicole Rueth, SVPThe Rueth Team750 W Hampden Avenue, Suite 500 Englewood, CO 80110303-214-6393www.TheRuethTeam.comConnect on social media: Follow me on FB: https://www.facebook.com/theruethteam/Twitter: https://twitter.com/nicoleruethLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rueth-team-fairway-independent-mortgage/YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPMdb94tUNMMsUTgdWRMDKwNicole Rueth (NMLS 239840) is licensed to practice on behalf of OneTrust Home Loans (NMLS 46375) in the states listed below. For full compliance verbiage, visit theruethteam.com/compliance/.AZ, CA, CO, FL, ID, IL, IN, KS, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WY.
 

In a tough market flooded with negative headlines, it can be an uphill battle trying to convince clients that now is still a good time to buy!
The truth is that we don't know when a recession will happen, or what the extent will be? How much further interest rates will rise? When they will fall?  How much will they fall? The list goes on and on. And it's scary, I get that. The unknown always is. But here's what we do know:
Housing goes up in the long term
There are refinance opportunities when rates come down
Owning real estate gives you financial stability and opens up options in the future
Don't forget to join Agent Ignite https://www.theruethteam.com/agents/ignite-training/ 
 
Nicole Rueth, SVPThe Rueth Team750 W Hampden Avenue, Suite 500 Englewood, CO 80110303-214-6393www.TheRuethTeam.comConnect on social media: Follow me on FB: https://www.facebook.com/theruethteam/Twitter: https://twitter.com/nicoleruethLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rueth-team-fairway-independent-mortgage/YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPMdb94tUNMMsUTgdWRMDKwNicole Rueth (NMLS 239840) is licensed to practice on behalf of OneTrust Home Loans (NMLS 46375) in the states listed below. For full compliance verbiage, visit theruethteam.com/compliance/.AZ, CA, CO, FL, ID, IL, IN, KS, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WY.
 

Inventory exceeded demand in June for the first time since the same month in 2020. Spiking 94% year-over-year and 66% month-over-month.  Price reductions, according to Redfin, increased to 40% of homes on the market in Denver.  If the story ended there, it might concern me.  Sellers flooding the market giving homes away at discounted prices. But the story is much different than that.  June ended the first half of a transitional 2022 and it did so with a bang.  Cryptocurrency is down 60%; the stock market had its worst first half of a year since 1970, inflation hit a 41-year high and housing.. well, so far this year, housing is up 16.5%. 2022 year-to-date median price growth is only 1% lower than we experienced during the first half of 2021.
 
With all this inventory, though, buyers and sellers “feel” like it shifted to a buyers’ market. Get the full story in this episode of The Double Comma Club, "Inventory is double last year, but it is not enough."
 
Nicole Rueth, SVPThe Rueth Team750 W Hampden Avenue, Suite 500 Englewood, CO 80110303-214-6393www.TheRuethTeam.comConnect on social media: Follow me on FB: https://www.facebook.com/theruethteam/Twitter: https://twitter.com/nicoleruethLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rueth-team-fairway-independent-mortgage/YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPMdb94tUNMMsUTgdWRMDKwNicole Rueth (NMLS 239840) is licensed to practice on behalf of OneTrust Home Loans (NMLS 46375) in the states listed below. For full compliance verbiage, visit theruethteam.com/compliance/.AZ, CA, CO, FL, ID, IL, IN, KS, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WY.
 

This is a really detailed episode about a new interactive software tool. Nicole explains here. At the end of this post you will have a link for the interactive view of this tool she discusses. Here's a bit of what is covered in this episode.
Interest rates and home prices have gone up. We know that. And not only is it a question of affordability, but now it's also a buyer's discernment on whether or not that home or buying now is the right choice. Sellers are feeling this. They've been on the market for longer than we are used to. We got spoiled over the last couple of years. Sellers did with very quick turn times, very quick to go under contract. And so now, even though we're nowhere near normal with less than a month of inventory, it feels slow. So I wanted to propose a couple of alternatives and actually show the differences between those alternatives and options, both for a seller who's going to market and how do they want to list their home? And as a buyer, how can I strategize the best payment option for me right now? Whether what is more, most important to me?
Is it cash to close? Is it the monthly payment? Is it the adjustment period? And then do I expect in a recessionary period that interest rates will go down because I want to start here before I get into the matrix that I'm showing you. This is a little bit of a different video that we typically send out on Wednesdays, because I want to give you a tool. This tool is clickable. You can actually open it up rummage around and look at the alternatives and request a strategy session so that we can set this up for your listing or for your specific buyer parameters. But I want to talk first just for a second on ARM, because that option is not going to be described here. I'm going to go over going through and buying a home with 10% down, buying a home capitalizing on a two, one buy down capitalizing on maybe a seller credit for a permanent buy down or discount points to pay, to reduce the rate, or should a seller have to reduce their price to get it to move.
But what I don't show is ARMs simply because there are four columns and not five. So there you have it, but I do want to say that arms are going to work very similar. In fact, for the two, one buy down, category, I used the model within this tool for an ARM. So we could switch this based on the kind of ARM that you're looking at, whether it's a five-year, seven-year, 10-year ARM, and then what the parameters are for the movement of that ARM. The one risk that I want to present with ARMs, that the two, one buy down protects you against is what if, what if rates don't go down. The third number on an ARM talks about what is the maximum that ARM can go up. And a lot of times it's got a five in it or a four. So if today's interest rate for you for that ARM is four and a half, and the last number on your ARM parameters is a five. That means that that loan could go up to nine and a half percent. Would that wreck your budget? We're all counting on a recession and on lower interest rates, but do you need a plan B? So let's talk about these four options and consider a two, one, a two, one buy-down option instead of an ARM. They go hand in hand and they can trade out for one another.
Want to access the interactive software? FOLLOW THIS LINK: https://bit.ly/3ucAWLj
Nicole will be narrating it with the same information in this episode, but you'll be able to click some of the items to get more details as you follow along. Any questions, please call her: 303-214-6393
 
Nicole Rueth, SVPThe Rueth Team750 W Hampden Avenue, Suite 500 Englewood, CO 80110303-214-6393www.TheRuethTeam.comConnect on social media: Follow me on FB: https://www.facebook.com/theruethteam/Twitter: https://twitter.com/nicoleruethLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-rueth-team-fairway-independent-mortgage/YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPMdb94tUNMMsUTgdWRMDKwNicole Rueth (NMLS 239840) is licensed to practice on behalf of OneTrust Home Loans (NMLS 46375) in the states listed below. For full compliance verbiage, visit theruethteam.com/compliance/.AZ, CA, CO, FL, ID, IL, IN, KS, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, WY.
 

Strap in, this is a long one! 
Last week the CPI came out not as expected. The percentage doesn't matter as much as the DIRECTION... it went up! This threw the market for a loop. Interest rates did increase and now the headlines are making you believe we are going into depression.
WE ARE STILL IN A STRONG HOUSING MARKET.
The likelihood of massive job loss and massive loss in the stock market is not likely... granted it may feel like it today.
Interest rates increased from 5.5% last Thursday to 6.18% yesterday. As we go into FED week, the market was expecting a 50bp increase. However, with the increase in CPI, the FED may be forced to increase that rate even more. That possibility of change is what makes the market react. The market likes knowing what is going to happen. So when the possibility of change looms, it begins to move.
Bottom line is that rates went up for several reasons, but we remain part of an incredibly strong real estate market.
I want to talk about the interest rates first because they went from 5.5 on Thursday to 6.18% on Monday 5.5% . That is a massive jump. Especially if you are watching my live session. I said, hurry up and get under contract, take advantage of the interest rates that we have today because next week we're going into the fed.
Now, even when interest rates started to go up, a lot of people are asking me how high do you think, they could go? And I was like six and a quarter, right? So we're here. We're at 6.25%. We made it, do we go much higher? I don't know. I don't know because the fed where we're at right now is a little bit unchartered. We've got this quantitative tightening that's happening and how aggressive the fed, uh, goes, is going to push interest rates. But what interest rates are doing right now is squelching demand. It's authentic demand reduction.
Listen to this episode as I also cover the continuing reasons the housing market is so strong. GET IN NOW!

Historically, we are trying to determine the best direction for us individually and personally. And how do we operate? Because many want to operate out of fear. That is our natural go-to, but those that operate out of opportunity, create doors that open. We were talking about this last Thursday, when we did this ad hoc live talking about this weekend is a door that is opening. It is your choice to go through it. You don't have to, you can continue renting which people will because sales are slightly down and what's the option. Because demographics have not changed. We are still talking about the next two to three years of incredible buyer demand. Mortgage purchase applications are down yet. Demographics have not changed. So if people are operating in fear thinking that interest rates are too high, that I can't get into the home of my dreams, then the alternative is renting.
The alternative is a 100% interest rate. The alternative is not building wealth, not creating financial stability and not creating the opportunities for multi-generational wealth. I mean that's it, it boils down to that. I can't say it any clearer. I get that higher interest rates make affordability a big question mark.  
What we have is a slowdown today. It isn't about credit deficiencies. It's about consumer confidence. Consumer confidence is down. Yes, it's down. The cost of everything is up. Why wouldn't it be down? It costs more to fill my gas tank. It costs me more for my groceries. Yes. It costs more. My gosh. Have you been to Costco lately? That little basket of goodies is way more than it used to be and my kids are. Listen to the rest of this episode for the reasons why this window is ideal for homebuyers.