Wednesday Nov 16, 2022
PPI Numbers Explained: Is Inflation Finally Slowing Down?
The cost of borrowing of a business, borrowing funds is still going up trying to slow down the spending that Americans and businesses are doing to inflict pain, right? We talked about this, that the Fed is trying to inflict pain. The Fed is trying to slow the roll to just slow down demand, slow down buying and allow supply chains to catch back up again.
The cost of everything is just not going to drop like a rock, but it's going to slowly get there where the cost of the things that we experience at the gas station, at the grocery store are going to start coming back to Earth, right? So let me point out a couple things.
So the cost of shipping; shippers have already said that they expect to realize a benefit in lower costs early 2023. So we're seeing these indexes that some of the things that's costing them, like the cost of gas is less? Some of their expenses are less. They're expecting that cost to then be passed on to the wholesalers, which will be measured in the PPI early 2023. Again, nothing happens overnight, but check out this drop. We saw 4.9% drop month-over-month, which dropped the annual percentage from 21% in September to 11% in October. Now that's a big drop given where we had been because we had seen it much higher than that, even upwards of 21%. So to see that kind of annual growth coming down tells you that the shippers are going to start passing on lower costs to the producers and the wholesalers and those wholesalers.
We saw the PPI came out this morning and it dropped from an 8.4% annualized to an 8% annualized. It was expected to come out at 8.3%. The month-over-month was only 0.2% and that was expected to be 0.4%. So all of that is showing that the annual is coming down because the month-over-month increase is slowing down. So the shipping is costing a little bit less. The cost of shipping, of getting the products from the ports to the fact or to the warehouses. That shipping cost is costing less. The wholesalers, their cost of goods, their cost of acquiring that product to then turn into the consumer based product. So that wholesale price is coming down. We saw on Thursday's report, the CPI came down, it was expected to have a month over month of double what it actually had.
The value and the equity that we have in our homes is abundant, even if it comes down slightly based on our expectation of our equity over the last two years.
We are still strong in equity. We're strong in savings. Many of us, many us still have jobs. There's still job openings. GDP is expected to be positive this fourth quarter, which says that the economy is still churning and people are still buying all of these things way towards a strong economy, which is where I'm going to land. This plane also lands to a very strong real estate market.
Listen to this full episode. The summary is That's it. That's what it comes down to is the balance of supply and demand.
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